ISM Services – CONTRACTION – (No, Not “Less Good”)

Contrary to spinster belief, not everything is going gangbusters in the U.S. Sure, we saw a nice employment number last Friday, but there are many reasons to believe that that was more of an aberration that a trend that will continue.

To clarify, the jobs situation IS getting better. There is no doubt about that, for now. But, the large gain that we saw is probably not sustainable. One reason is that is does not tie out with what we are seeing for the rest of the economy. Part-time help did provide a boost and hiring in retail also was strong. But both of these areas are temporary.

Look at the ISM Non-Manufacturing that has slipped back to a contraction reading as one non-confirmation. Add to that slipping confidence numbers along with slowing retail sales and we should not get ahead of ourselves to think that the recovery in jobs will continue at this pace.

ISM Services 20091203


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