The bottom line to all of this is that uncertainty reigns. Here are my thoughts from last night… (for what it is worth):
This is going to be fun. I think the whole Spain thing was a misdirection move ahead of the Greek election. If the Greek pro-bailout party wins, I bet this deal with Spain will be scrapped (or at least have heavy conditions). Rajoy has unfortunately lost most, if not all, credibility.
Since nothing has really been detailed and Germany is still balking, seems like this is nothing more than a Hail-Mary ahead of the elections. All sovereigns that got bailouts will want to renegotiate their entire deal. EU leaders must have known that was a risk, but if the deal never goes through , it is just postured to be a big feel-good up to next weekend to get elevation for markets (cushion)..
This is simply advanced warning that Greece exit is currently in process.
You can quote me on that…