ADP has been doing a much better job lately of coming in with a well correlated number to the NFP “official” report. We do wonder why it is so important to have another indicator if it is simply to mimic one that no one trusts anyway?
Whatever the case, we know that there are many who use the employment reports as a measure of the economy as a whole. Since that is the case, we better take notice.
The initial claims release today showed a slight uptick in claims, but not enough to really be a worry. Note that there is big expectations for a beat for tomorrow. Combine that with whatever drivel comes from a successful forced involuntary, voluntary non-default default of Greece and it should be a fun day.
Look for a number close to 200,000 and the unemployment rate to stay unchanged. A big deviation from that (50,000 or more) should be market moving.