ADP (BADish) – Chicago PMI (GOODish) – What Next?

Certainly there is concern about the state of the jobs markets. If only we could have an administration that can channel their energy from reform to growth. What a concept. Instead of changing all now, how about getting us back on our feet economically before you try to break it down again. If nothing else, it would be more fun.

  • June ADP Employment Change +13K vs. +61K consensus; prior revised to +57K from +55K

The only other data point of the day was the Chicago PMI.

  • The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index provided a reading of 59.1 just above estimates. June Chicago PMI 59.1 vs. 59.0 consensus; prior 59.7


The same qualification we provided following the Chicago PMI report for May also applies for June. “Business activity got a little weaker in the Midwest region, but do not confuse weak with bad.” The June reading qualifies as a sign of a manufacturing region clearly in expansion mode.

The latter view aside, there is an irksome trend developing that should play into the market’s concerns about an economic slowdown. Specifically, this was the second month in a row that the business barometer index came down versus the prior month. That index peaked — or so it would seem — at 63.8 in April. Additionally, June marked the second month in a row that the indexes for new orders, order backlogs, and prices paid also came down versus the prior month.

The new orders index, which peaked at 65.2 in April, slipped to 59.1 from 62.7 in May. The order backlogs index, which peaked at 61.4 in April, dropped to 50.7 from 52.7. The prices paid index, which peaked at 71.4 in April, fell to 61.9 from 64.0.

On the flip side, the production index ticked up to 64.2 from 61.0, and the employment index increased to 54.2 from 49.2.