Initial and Continuing Claims – The Inside Scoop

Today’s release shows the same story for continuing claims. A drop from a highpoint in May, 2009. But as you may recall from our recent post on this subject, the numbers are not entirely accurate.

First though, consider that the initial claims are holding steady above 400,000 per week. That is stubbornly high and saw a slight uptick this week. Some seasonality is to blame, but even so the combination of this and the recent non-farm payrolls are speaking to a high unemployment level for some time to come.

According to   the Congressional budget office , the U.S.   unemployment rate will not drop below 8 pct until 2012,   ( hat-tip Frank Curzio). That is a looooonnnnngggggg time folks.

Here is the actual chart that shows the real continuing claims numbers….

Quite a different story.


Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold positions of securities mentioned as of the date published.