Here Is What Is Wrong With IBM

Just a quick view of what is going on with IBM’s stock today.

While IBM has been busy buying back massive amounts of their stock, revenues have been on the slide. Yes, earnings have been somewhat consistent over time, but again it has been much more about financial engineering than anything else.

A much better way to look at earnings is to compare the growth over time. This calculated the quarterly growth over the same period a year ago.

Of course analysts have high hopes for the future – as they often do. But also remember that any estimates may be off of a lower comparison period.

One thing that can’t be fudged is revenues. This is something that we look at closely when we know that a company is active in a large-scale share buyback program.

The chart above is a look at revenues over time and looks as though there is a consistency on a quarter-by-quarter basis. However, the chart below  digs into the growth of those revenues and shows a much more gloomy situation.

How can analysts be expecting that FQ32017 will show an 72% jump in EPS when revenue is not keeping pace? Something does not add up. This is why the stock is getting hit today as there is an expectation that estimates will have to come down.

The table below sums up just how ugly things are for IBM. Not a picture of a stock that has figured out how to grow through acquisition, innovation or otherwise. The bottom line: There are plenty of other tech companies that deserve your money at this point.

 

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