Guest, Tian Yang of Variant Perception tells us about the flaws in sell-side analysis as well as the pitfalls in economic research. Tian also explains how investors may want to look at specific leading indicators, which he reveals, in order to take advantage of what could be the next move for markets.
Some of the big moves for the week were remarkable, especially in the shipping sector and we take a look at just what happened.
Tian Yang is Head of Research at Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to hedge funds, banks and family offices. Tian’s work focuses on using proprietary leading indicators to generate actionable investment ideas. Prior to joining VP, Tian worked for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, where he was jointly responsible for building out the delta one global index business. Tian holds a B.A. in Economics from Cambridge University.
Variant Perception Research was founded by a team of former traders and economists. Their market commentaries provide a high level of value to any firm or individual that is interested in using independent research to aid decision making, formulate trading strategies or manage assets.
As they tell us, Variant does not see themselves as bulls or bears, nor are they inflationists or deflationists. They realize the world is more complex and often cannot be simplified into two polar points of view. Instead they concentrate on forward-looking data that enables them to forecast where the economy is headed. Many economists fixate on coincident or even lagging data that can only tell them where the economy is or where it has been. This is like driving by looking in the rear-view mirror or out of the side window, rather than forwards through the windscreen.
By focusing on leading data that has an empirically proven record in anticipating turns in the business cycle and thus the price movements of assets, they are able to help drive their clients’ investment decisions, and maximize their profitability.