How can consumers have confidence when we are all aghast at the actions of our leaders? With no direction, constant political turmoil, near death economic incidents and plans that change with the wind – what does anyone expect?
The more interesting question is how are retail sales sustaining when there is no confidence. Where is the disconnect?
Perhaps it is as simple as the weak dollar and the foreign consumer? Or, more likely is that we have a very low expectation and an even lower sense of reality so a 1% growth looks good. (China and other emerging nations should laugh when they see this anemic number)
The expectations level of the UMich is the most concerning and we would have to go back decades to find a number lower. From the stock market’s perspective, this translates to : “It can only get better from here!”
As for business inventories, they were just ahead of expectations. As always, that can be taken in one of two ways. Either there is not enough business (sales) and inventory is rising, or businesses are in the process of ordering and restocking to keep pace with the deamnd that they are predicti