{"id":8514,"date":"2010-03-09T14:10:54","date_gmt":"2010-03-09T19:10:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=8514"},"modified":"2016-09-20T17:53:21","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T21:53:21","slug":"nfp-payrolls-what-is-with-estimates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/09\/nfp-payrolls-what-is-with-estimates\/","title":{"rendered":"NFP Payrolls &#8211; What is With Estimates?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What is going on with economists lately? Before you answer that, it is the same affliction that we seem to see for analysts. It is the <em>estimate-low-not-to-get-it-wrong<\/em> syndrome. It is spreading like an epidemic too.<\/p>\n<p>Before the numbers came out for Non-Farm payrolls ( NFP ) last Friday, expectations were all over the map. None were close though. Not even the crystal ball over at Goldman could predict <!--more-->that the snow storms would be an non-issue.<\/p>\n<p>Prior to the report, we were saying:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Looks like the high estimate is for a gain of 30k jobs and a low estimate of -150k jobs.  Some &#8220;Non-Economists&#8221; are calling for -220k.  They are thinking the snow reduced payrolls as hourly people were unable to go to work which therefore were unable to collect a pay check (I would guess, not sure however).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>(Click Chart to Enlarge)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/03\/2010030811.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8543 aligncenter\" title=\"201003081\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/03\/2010030811-610x277.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"610\" height=\"277\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is going on with economists lately? Before you answer that, it is the same affliction that we seem to see for analysts. It is the estimate-low-not-to-get-it-wrong syndrome. It is spreading like an epidemic too. Before the numbers came out for Non-Farm payrolls ( NFP ) last Friday, expectations were all over the map. None [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,12],"tags":[481],"class_list":["post-8514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-markets","tag-economy","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8514\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}