{"id":55396,"date":"2022-09-21T03:18:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-21T07:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=55396"},"modified":"2022-09-21T03:18:00","modified_gmt":"2022-09-21T07:18:00","slug":"dhunplugged-623-rate-hysteria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2022\/09\/21\/dhunplugged-623-rate-hysteria\/","title":{"rendered":"DHUnplugged #623: Rate Hysteria"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Auntie Em! It&#8217;s a twister! Rate hikes that is &#8211; everyone is getting hysterical.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/dh_623_banner.jpg\" width=\"405\" height=\"220\" \/><\/p>\n<p>FedEx puts a crimp in the outlook.<\/p>\n<p>Stranger Danger &#8211; new Monkeypox advice in China<\/p>\n<p>PLUS we are now on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/30bQIjH9Gw4es27XYrYKJL\">Spotify<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/music.amazon.com\/podcasts\/79261e60-0492-43c0-b1a2-708ebeb4bd7e\/DH-Unplugged\">Amazon Music\/Podcasts<\/a><\/strong>!<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-spoiler su-spoiler-style-fancy su-spoiler-icon-plus-circle su-spoiler-closed\" data-scroll-offset=\"0\" data-anchor-in-url=\"no\">\n<div class=\"su-spoiler-title\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\"><span class=\"su-spoiler-icon\"><\/span>Click HERE for Show Notes and Links<\/div>\n<div class=\"su-spoiler-content su-u-clearfix su-u-trim\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>DHUnplugged is now streaming live &#8211; with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Love the Show? <\/b>Then how about a Donation?<\/h4>\n<div align=\"center\">\n<form action=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr\" method=\"post\" target=\"_blank\"><input name=\"cmd\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"_s-xclick\" \/><br \/>\n<input name=\"hosted_button_id\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"2YUNUFNG66LVU\" \/><br \/>\n<input title=\"PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!\" alt=\"Donate\" name=\"submit\" src=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/en_US\/i\/btn\/btn_donateCC_LG.gif\" type=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/en_US\/i\/scr\/pixel.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" border=\"0\" \/><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/THErealDVORAK\"><strong>Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewhorowitz\"><strong>Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"ILfuVd NA6bn\"><span class=\"hgKElc\"><strong>Warm Up<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8211; So Sorry &#8211; The Killers concert update<br \/>\n&#8211; Biden making some big announcements<br \/>\n&#8211; Announcing the winner of the CTP for Bed bath and Beyond<br \/>\n&#8211; Stranger Danger<br \/>\n&#8211; FedEx Warning shakes markets<br \/>\n&#8211; New sport? Nose Biting?<br \/>\n&#8212;- <em>Has done something no one has ever done before!<\/em><br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Market Update<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Big day coming &#8211; Fed Rate Decision<br \/>\n&#8211; UGLY week &#8211; CPI (Inflation) ruined the party<br \/>\n&#8212; 5.5% DOWN for NASDAQ last Tuesday. Markets off big last week<br \/>\n&#8211; Oil dropping on concerns that China COVID -ZERO and global slowdown<br \/>\n&#8211; Goldman Cutting US Growth Forecast<\/p>\n<p><strong>RATE HYSTERIA!<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; 2PM, 2:30PM &#8211; Wednesday<br \/>\n&#8211; 20% probability of 1% and 100% of 75%|<br \/>\n&#8211; 10Yr spiked again &#8211; now over the top of June peak<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8211; Seems that markets and news hysterical &#8211; yet inflation peaking&#8230;..<br \/>\n&#8211; If any slight layoff by Powell , markets going to gush higher (at least temporarily)<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8211; Seems like 0.75% priced in &#8211; so not sure where we are going from here (pundits again looking for downside after they switched recently)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rate Update<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; High grade money markets &gt;2%<br \/>\n&#8211; 2 year muni bond &gt;2.5%<br \/>\n&#8211; 12 month treasury &gt;4%<br \/>\n&#8211; 1 year CD &gt; 2.7%<\/p>\n<p><strong>JCD<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; FYI &#8211; DJIA @ 30,706<\/p>\n<p><strong>President Biden &#8211; Declaration!<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; The Pandemic Is Over!<br \/>\n&#8212; &#8220;We still have a problem with COVID. We&#8217;re still doing a lotta work on it. But the pandemic is over. If you notice, no one&#8217;s wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape. And so I think it&#8217;s changing.&#8221;<br \/>\n&#8211; Doesn&#8217;t the WHO have the responsibility of declaring?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Biden Again &#8211;<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Inflation just moved up an inch in the last reading<br \/>\n&#8211; Trying his best to tamp down the concerns out there<br \/>\n&#8211; Biden team out if force on the idea that gas and oil prices are down big &#8211; talking it up<br \/>\n&#8211; Oil and gas are all about China &#8211; not US<\/p>\n<p><strong>Biden &#8211; So happy &#8211; Gas prices plummeting<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"su-lightbox\" data-mfp-src=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/gasPrices20220916.jpg\" data-mfp-type=\"image\" data-mobile=\"yes\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-default\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#2D89EF;border-color:#246ec0;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color:#FFFFFF;padding:0px 16px;font-size:13px;line-height:26px;border-color:#6cadf4;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px;text-shadow:none;-moz-text-shadow:none;-webkit-text-shadow:none\"> Gas Prices<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Maybe not so Happy<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; US household net worth declined in the second quarter by the most on record as aggressive action by the Fed to tame rapid inflation sent stocks plunging<\/p>\n<p><strong>MonekeyPox Back in the News<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Seems that spread in Europe is slowing down significantly<br \/>\n&#8211; China gets first case and now they are saying: Don&#8217;t touch foreigners to reduce monkeypox risk<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8220;To prevent possible monkeypox infection and as part of our healthy lifestyle, it is recommended that 1) you do not have direct skin-to-skin contact with foreigners,&#8221; Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention posted on his official Weibo page on Saturday.<br \/>\n&#8211; 2) Wu also called for people to avoid such contact with people who have been abroad within the past three weeks as well as all &#8220;strangers&#8221;, as he cautioned vigilance. (STRANGER DANGER)<\/p>\n<p><strong>What is Up ? FedEx Warning<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; FedEx on Thursday withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments.<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8220;Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S.,&#8221; CEO Raj Subramaniam said in the release. &#8220;While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts.&#8221;<br \/>\n&#8211; Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expected\u00a0\u00a0 &#8211;\u00a0 &#8211; &#8211; &#8212;\u00a0\u00a0 Revenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expected<br \/>\n&#8211; <em><strong>Prompted<\/strong> <\/em>in interview with Cramer: Is the economy headed for Worldwide recession???<br \/>\n&#8212;&#8212;- \u201cI think so,\u201d Subramaniam said. \u201cThese numbers, they don\u2019t portend well.\u201d \u201cWe are a reflection of everybody else\u2019s business, especially the high-value economy in the world,\u201d<br \/>\n&#8211; The company cited specific weakness in Asia as well as challenges to service in Europe for its underperformance in the first quarter.<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8211; Stock was down 24% on this news &#8211; one of worst days in Fedex history<\/p>\n<p><strong>Overseas &#8211; Real Estate<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; In the June quarter the average dwelling prices fell 2% across Australia.<br \/>\n&#8211; In New South Wales they fell 3.8% while in Queensland prices were mostly flat. South Australia on the other hand saw a solid 3.6% growth<br \/>\n&#8211; Since the middle of 2020 residential prices have on average risen 28.4%, while at the same time wages have risen just 2.9%.<br \/>\n&#8211; Since 2012 average household disposable income has risen 30%, while property prices have risen 82%<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"su-lightbox\" data-mfp-src=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/sydneyhousing.jpg\" data-mfp-type=\"image\" data-mobile=\"yes\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-default\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#2D89EF;border-color:#246ec0;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color:#FFFFFF;padding:0px 16px;font-size:13px;line-height:26px;border-color:#6cadf4;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px;text-shadow:none;-moz-text-shadow:none;-webkit-text-shadow:none\"> Australia Housing 1<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"su-lightbox\" data-mfp-src=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/brisbaneHousing.jpg\" data-mfp-type=\"image\" data-mobile=\"yes\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-default\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#2D89EF;border-color:#246ec0;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color:#FFFFFF;padding:0px 16px;font-size:13px;line-height:26px;border-color:#6cadf4;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px;text-shadow:none;-moz-text-shadow:none;-webkit-text-shadow:none\"> Australia Housing 2<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>More Australia Housing<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Australian Governor of Australia Reserve Bank<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8220;Estimates suggest the net effect is that mortgage payments for new buyers would be higher for about two years as a result of higher interest rates,&#8221; said Kearns.<br \/>\n&#8211; READ SLOWLY &#8211;\u00a0 &#8211; &#8220;But after that, the declines in housing prices and mortgage size begin to dominate,&#8221; he added. &#8220;It suggests that because higher interest rates reduce housing prices and so mortgage sizes, mortgage payments for new borrowers could ultimately be lower than if interest rates had not increased.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>When do we all realize that governments are all about Real Estate and Oil\/Energy???<br \/>\n<\/strong><strong>China Housing<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; China injecting $$$$ into construction projects to help boost domestic consumption.<br \/>\n&#8211; Meanwhile: prices extended their year-on-year contraction for the fourth month in August, with prices last month falling 1.3%, the fastest annual pace in seven years, and suggesting longer-term homebuyer aversion.<br \/>\n&#8211; Authorities have taken steps to prop up the sector this year, including relaxations on home purchases, smaller downpayments, cuts in mortgage interest rates, and a bigger reduction in the selling price of homes<\/p>\n<p><strong>US GDP Outlook<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its US economic growth estimates for 2023 after recently boosting its predictions for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.<br \/>\n&#8211; US gross domestic product will increase 1.1% in 2023, economists including Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Friday, compared with a forecast of 1.5% previously. The projection for 2022 was left unchanged at 0%.<br \/>\n&#8211; Goldman raised its federal funds rate forecast by 75 basis points over the last two weeks for a terminal rate forecast of 4% to 4.25% by the end of 2022.<br \/>\n&#8211; Goldman also raised forecasts for the unemployment rate to reflect the lower growth, saying it will be about 3.7% by end-2022, compared with a call for 3.6% previously. It will rise to 4.1% by the end of 2023 versus 3.8% previously, and to 4.2% by end-2024 compared with a prior estimate of 4%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>More Bad<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Ford Motor on Monday warned investors that the company expects to incur $1 billion more in costs than previously expected during the third quarter due to supply chain issues.<br \/>\n&#8211; The company, however, said it still expects 2022 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, but said the supply chain problems have resulted in parts shortages affecting roughly 40,000 to 45,000 vehicles that haven&#8217;t been able to reach dealers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Crypto<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; The Ethereum blockchain has undergone a major software upgrade, drastically reducing its energy usage<br \/>\n&#8211; The new system will use 99.95% less energy, according to the Ethereum Foundation. The upgrade, which changes how transactions occur and how ether tokens are created, could give Ethereum a major advantage as it seeks to surpass rival blockchain bitcoin<br \/>\n&#8211; With the software upgrade, Ethereum has moved from a &#8220;proof of work&#8221; system, in which energy-hungry computers validate transactions by solving complex maths problems, to a &#8220;proof of stake&#8221; system, where individuals and companies act as validators, using their ether as collateral, to win newly created tokens<br \/>\n&#8211; Not same power usage &#8211; possible NVDA as less need for powerful GPUs ?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Playing Defense<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Adobe Inc said it would buy online design startup Figma for about $20 billion to expand its portfolio of collaboration-focused platforms geared for the hybrid-work era.<br \/>\n&#8211; FIGMA has $400 million\u00a0 in annual revenue.<br \/>\n&#8212; ADBE investors not pleased (Stock was down 15% in reaction)<\/p>\n<p><strong>What ??<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; The British pound dropped below $1.14 for the first time since 1985 as a combination of dollar strength and recession warnings weighed on the U.K.\u2019s currency.<br \/>\n&#8211; The World Bank on Thursday warned of a global recession in 2023 and said central bank hiking may not be enough to bring down inflation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>More Currency<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Intervention Time &#8211; Japan<br \/>\n&#8211; It is more than a decade since Japan intervened directly in the foreign exchange market and more than two decades since it intervened to support its currency , which it last did during the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to 1998.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"su-lightbox\" data-mfp-src=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Japan_Intervention.png\" data-mfp-type=\"image\" data-mobile=\"yes\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-default\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#2D89EF;border-color:#246ec0;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color:#FFFFFF;padding:0px 16px;font-size:13px;line-height:26px;border-color:#6cadf4;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px;text-shadow:none;-moz-text-shadow:none;-webkit-text-shadow:none\"> Yen Intervention<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Fake Meat Side effect?<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Beyond Meat COO Doug Ramsey arrested for allegedly biting man&#8217;s nose after Arkansas college football game<br \/>\n&#8211; Ramsey, 53, was charged with terroristic threatening and third-degree battery and booked in the Washington County jail on Saturday evening.<br \/>\n&#8211; Ramsey allegedly punched through the back windshield of a Subaru after it made contact with the front tire of Ramsey&#8217;s car. The Subaru owner then got out of his car, and Ramsey allegedly started punching him and bit his nose, &#8220;ripping the flesh on the tip of the nose,&#8221; according to the report. The victim and a witness also alleged that Ramsey told the Subaru owner he would kill him.<\/p>\n<p><strong>One More For The Road<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; European factories are shutting down lines due to high electricity bills<br \/>\n&#8211; Will have to get more info on this as it developes<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>420 Stocks &#8230;<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/DHPotStocks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CLICK for list of &#8220;Pot Stocks&#8221;<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Love the Show? <\/b>Then how about a Donation?<\/h4>\n<div align=\"center\">\n<form action=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/cgi-bin\/webscr\" method=\"post\" target=\"_blank\"><input name=\"cmd\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"_s-xclick\" \/><br \/>\n<input name=\"hosted_button_id\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"2YUNUFNG66LVU\" \/><br \/>\n<input title=\"PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!\" alt=\"Donate\" name=\"submit\" src=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/en_US\/i\/btn\/btn_donateCC_LG.gif\" type=\"image\" \/><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.paypal.com\/en_US\/i\/scr\/pixel.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" border=\"0\" \/><\/form>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/dh_CTP.jpg\" alt=\"dh_CTP\" width=\"602\" height=\"122\" \/><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/CTP\/bed-bath-beyond-inc\/\"><strong>ANNOUNCING THR WINNER FOR<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/CTP\/bed-bath-beyond-inc\/\"><strong>CTP for Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/ctp_BBBY.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) &#8211;<br \/>\nPLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner&#8217;s certificate..<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/tradingview.go2cloud.org\/aff_c?offer_id=2&amp;aff_id=2430&amp;source=DHCTP\"><strong>CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>UPDATE<\/strong><\/span> &#8211; NEW ETF &#8211; Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as <strong>Facebook<\/strong>, <strong>LinkedIn<\/strong> and <strong>Amazon<\/strong>, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts <strong>AvalonBay Communities<\/strong> and Equity <strong>Residential<\/strong>, and <strong>Home Depot<\/strong>, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We are creating the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/dhoci-index-tracking\/\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>DH Old Codger Index Portfolio<\/strong><\/span><\/a> to compete against this new ETF to see how &#8220;old school&#8221; stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:<em> (updated names as of 8\/29\/16)<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5\/6\/16) &#8211; <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/dhoci-index-tracking\/\">DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>CRYPTO LIMERICKS<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>JCD Score ()<\/p>\n<p><strong>FED LIMERICKS<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>JCD Score ()<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">See this week\u2019s stock picks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/stock-page\/\"><strong>HERE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/THErealDVORAK\"><strong>Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewhorowitz\"><strong>Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Auntie Em! It&#8217;s a twister! Rate hikes that is &#8211; everyone is getting hysterical.<\/p>\n<p>FedEx puts a crimp in the outlook.<\/p>\n<p>Stranger Danger &#8211; new Monkeypox advice in China<\/p>\n<p>PLUS we are now on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/30bQIjH9Gw4es27XYrYKJL\">Spotify<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/music.amazon.com\/podcasts\/79261e60-0492-43c0-b1a2-708ebeb4bd7e\/DH-Unplugged\">Amazon Music\/Podcasts<\/a><\/strong>!<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Click HERE for Show Notes and Links<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>DHUnplugged is now streaming live &#8211; with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Love the Show? <\/b>Then how about a Donation?<\/h4>\n<p><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/THErealDVORAK\"><strong>Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewhorowitz\"><strong>Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Warm Up<br \/>\n<\/strong>&#8211; So Sorry &#8211; The Killers concert update<br \/>\n&#8211; Biden making some big announcements<br \/>\n&#8211; Announcing the winner of the CTP for Bed bath and Beyond<br \/>\n&#8211; Stranger Danger<br \/>\n&#8211; FedEx Warning shakes markets<br \/>\n&#8211; New sport? Nose Biting?<br \/>\n&#8212;- <em>Has done something no one has ever done before!<\/em>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>Market Update<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Big day coming &#8211; Fed Rate Decision<br \/>\n&#8211; UGLY week &#8211; CPI (Inflation) ruined the party<br \/>\n&#8212; 5.5% DOWN for NASDAQ last Tuesday. Markets off big last week<br \/>\n&#8211; Oil dropping on concerns that China COVID -ZERO and global slowdown<br \/>\n&#8211; Goldman Cutting US Growth Forecast<\/p>\n<p><strong>RATE HYSTERIA!<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; 2PM, 2:30PM &#8211; Wednesday<br \/>\n&#8211; 20% probability of 1% and 100% of 75%|<br \/>\n&#8211; 10Yr spiked again &#8211; now over the top of June peak<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8211; Seems that markets and news hysterical &#8211; yet inflation peaking&#8230;..<br \/>\n&#8211; If any slight layoff by Powell , markets going to gush higher (at least temporarily)<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8211; Seems like 0.75% priced in &#8211; so not sure where we are going from here (pundits again looking for downside after they switched recently)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rate Update<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; High grade money markets &gt;2%<br \/>\n&#8211; 2 year muni bond &gt;2.5%<br \/>\n&#8211; 12 month treasury &gt;4%<br \/>\n&#8211; 1 year CD &gt; 2.7%<\/p>\n<p><strong>JCD<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; FYI &#8211; DJIA @ 30,706<\/p>\n<p><strong>President Biden &#8211; Declaration!<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; The Pandemic Is Over!<br \/>\n&#8212; &#8220;We still have a problem with COVID. We&#8217;re still doing a lotta work on it. But the pandemic is over. If you notice, no one&#8217;s wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape. And so I think it&#8217;s changing.&#8221;<br \/>\n&#8211; Doesn&#8217;t the WHO have the responsibility of declaring?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Biden Again &#8211;<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Inflation just moved up an inch in the last reading<br \/>\n&#8211; Trying his best to tamp down the concerns out there<br \/>\n&#8211; Biden team out if force on the idea that gas and oil prices are down big &#8211; talking it up<br \/>\n&#8211; Oil and gas are all about China &#8211; not US<\/p>\n<p><strong>Biden &#8211; So happy &#8211; Gas prices plummeting<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-default\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#2D89EF;border-color:#246ec0;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"> Gas Prices<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Maybe not so Happy<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; US household net worth declined in the second quarter by the most on record as aggressive action by the Fed to tame rapid inflation sent stocks plunging<\/p>\n<p><strong>MonekeyPox Back in the News<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Seems that spread in Europe is slowing down significantly<br \/>\n&#8211; China gets first case and now they are saying: Don&#8217;t touch foreigners to reduce monkeypox risk<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8220;To prevent possible monkeypox infection and as part of our healthy lifestyle, it is recommended that 1) you do not have direct skin-to-skin contact with foreigners,&#8221; Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention posted on his official Weibo page on Saturday.<br \/>\n&#8211; 2) Wu also called for people to avoid such contact with people who have been abroad within the past three weeks as well as all &#8220;strangers&#8221;, as he cautioned vigilance. (STRANGER DANGER)<\/p>\n<p><strong>What is Up ? FedEx Warning<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; FedEx on Thursday withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments.<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8220;Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S.,&#8221; CEO Raj Subramaniam said in the release. &#8220;While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts.&#8221;<br \/>\n&#8211; Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expected\u00a0\u00a0 &#8211;\u00a0 &#8211; &#8211; &#8212;\u00a0\u00a0 Revenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expected<br \/>\n&#8211; <em><strong>Prompted<\/strong> <\/em>in interview with Cramer: Is the economy headed for Worldwide recession???<br \/>\n&#8212;&#8212;- \u201cI think so,\u201d Subramaniam said. \u201cThese numbers, they don\u2019t portend well.\u201d \u201cWe are a reflection of everybody else\u2019s business, especially the high-value economy in the world,\u201d<br \/>\n&#8211; The company cited specific weakness in Asia as well as challenges to service in Europe for its underperformance in the first quarter.<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8211; Stock was down 24% on this news &#8211; one of worst days in Fedex history<\/p>\n<p><strong>Overseas &#8211; Real Estate<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; In the June quarter the average dwelling prices fell 2% across Australia.<br \/>\n&#8211; In New South Wales they fell 3.8% while in Queensland prices were mostly flat. South Australia on the other hand saw a solid 3.6% growth<br \/>\n&#8211; Since the middle of 2020 residential prices have on average risen 28.4%, while at the same time wages have risen just 2.9%.<br \/>\n&#8211; Since 2012 average household disposable income has risen 30%, while property prices have risen 82%<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-default\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#2D89EF;border-color:#246ec0;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"> Australia Housing 1<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-default\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#2D89EF;border-color:#246ec0;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"> Australia Housing 2<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>More Australia Housing<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Australian Governor of Australia Reserve Bank<br \/>\n&#8211; &#8220;Estimates suggest the net effect is that mortgage payments for new buyers would be higher for about two years as a result of higher interest rates,&#8221; said Kearns.<br \/>\n&#8211; READ SLOWLY &#8211;\u00a0 &#8211; &#8220;But after that, the declines in housing prices and mortgage size begin to dominate,&#8221; he added. &#8220;It suggests that because higher interest rates reduce housing prices and so mortgage sizes, mortgage payments for new borrowers could ultimately be lower than if interest rates had not increased.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>When do we all realize that governments are all about Real Estate and Oil\/Energy???<br \/>\n<\/strong><strong>China Housing<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; China injecting $$$$ into construction projects to help boost domestic consumption.<br \/>\n&#8211; Meanwhile: prices extended their year-on-year contraction for the fourth month in August, with prices last month falling 1.3%, the fastest annual pace in seven years, and suggesting longer-term homebuyer aversion.<br \/>\n&#8211; Authorities have taken steps to prop up the sector this year, including relaxations on home purchases, smaller downpayments, cuts in mortgage interest rates, and a bigger reduction in the selling price of homes<\/p>\n<p><strong>US GDP Outlook<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its US economic growth estimates for 2023 after recently boosting its predictions for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.<br \/>\n&#8211; US gross domestic product will increase 1.1% in 2023, economists including Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Friday, compared with a forecast of 1.5% previously. The projection for 2022 was left unchanged at 0%.<br \/>\n&#8211; Goldman raised its federal funds rate forecast by 75 basis points over the last two weeks for a terminal rate forecast of 4% to 4.25% by the end of 2022.<br \/>\n&#8211; Goldman also raised forecasts for the unemployment rate to reflect the lower growth, saying it will be about 3.7% by end-2022, compared with a call for 3.6% previously. It will rise to 4.1% by the end of 2023 versus 3.8% previously, and to 4.2% by end-2024 compared with a prior estimate of 4%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>More Bad<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Ford Motor on Monday warned investors that the company expects to incur $1 billion more in costs than previously expected during the third quarter due to supply chain issues.<br \/>\n&#8211; The company, however, said it still expects 2022 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion, but said the supply chain problems have resulted in parts shortages affecting roughly 40,000 to 45,000 vehicles that haven&#8217;t been able to reach dealers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Crypto<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; The Ethereum blockchain has undergone a major software upgrade, drastically reducing its energy usage<br \/>\n&#8211; The new system will use 99.95% less energy, according to the Ethereum Foundation. The upgrade, which changes how transactions occur and how ether tokens are created, could give Ethereum a major advantage as it seeks to surpass rival blockchain bitcoin<br \/>\n&#8211; With the software upgrade, Ethereum has moved from a &#8220;proof of work&#8221; system, in which energy-hungry computers validate transactions by solving complex maths problems, to a &#8220;proof of stake&#8221; system, where individuals and companies act as validators, using their ether as collateral, to win newly created tokens<br \/>\n&#8211; Not same power usage &#8211; possible NVDA as less need for powerful GPUs ?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Playing Defense<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Adobe Inc said it would buy online design startup Figma for about $20 billion to expand its portfolio of collaboration-focused platforms geared for the hybrid-work era.<br \/>\n&#8211; FIGMA has $400 million\u00a0 in annual revenue.<br \/>\n&#8212; ADBE investors not pleased (Stock was down 15% in reaction)<\/p>\n<p><strong>What ??<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; The British pound dropped below $1.14 for the first time since 1985 as a combination of dollar strength and recession warnings weighed on the U.K.\u2019s currency.<br \/>\n&#8211; The World Bank on Thursday warned of a global recession in 2023 and said central bank hiking may not be enough to bring down inflation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>More Currency<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Intervention Time &#8211; Japan<br \/>\n&#8211; It is more than a decade since Japan intervened directly in the foreign exchange market and more than two decades since it intervened to support its currency , which it last did during the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to 1998.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-default\" style=\"color:#FFFFFF;background-color:#2D89EF;border-color:#246ec0;border-radius:5px;-moz-border-radius:5px;-webkit-border-radius:5px\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\"> Yen Intervention<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Fake Meat Side effect?<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; Beyond Meat COO Doug Ramsey arrested for allegedly biting man&#8217;s nose after Arkansas college football game<br \/>\n&#8211; Ramsey, 53, was charged with terroristic threatening and third-degree battery and booked in the Washington County jail on Saturday evening.<br \/>\n&#8211; Ramsey allegedly punched through the back windshield of a Subaru after it made contact with the front tire of Ramsey&#8217;s car. The Subaru owner then got out of his car, and Ramsey allegedly started punching him and bit his nose, &#8220;ripping the flesh on the tip of the nose,&#8221; according to the report. The victim and a witness also alleged that Ramsey told the Subaru owner he would kill him.<\/p>\n<p><strong>One More For The Road<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8211; European factories are shutting down lines due to high electricity bills<br \/>\n&#8211; Will have to get more info on this as it developes<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>420 Stocks &#8230;<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/DHPotStocks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CLICK for list of &#8220;Pot Stocks&#8221;<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Love the Show? <\/b>Then how about a Donation?<\/h4>\n<p><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/CTP\/bed-bath-beyond-inc\/\"><strong>ANNOUNCING THR WINNER FOR<\/strong><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/CTP\/bed-bath-beyond-inc\/\"><strong>CTP for Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>*** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS ***<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) &#8211;<br \/>\nPLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner&#8217;s certificate..<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/tradingview.go2cloud.org\/aff_c?offer_id=2&amp;aff_id=2430&amp;source=DHCTP\"><strong>CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>UPDATE<\/strong> &#8211; NEW ETF &#8211; Global X Millennials Thematic ETF Challenge!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The top holdings of Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (MILN) include stocks many investors would expect, such as <strong>Facebook<\/strong>, <strong>LinkedIn<\/strong> and <strong>Amazon<\/strong>, which take advantage of the tech tendencies of millennials. But some names might be more surprising like real estate investment trusts <strong>AvalonBay Communities<\/strong> and Equity <strong>Residential<\/strong>, and <strong>Home Depot<\/strong>, which could benefit from millennials moving out of the home of their parents.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We are creating the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/dhoci-index-tracking\/\"><strong>DH Old Codger Index Portfolio<\/strong><\/a> to compete against this new ETF to see how &#8220;old school&#8221; stocks do in comparison. Companies in our index will include:<em> (updated names as of 8\/29\/16)<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">We have the performance summary running (daily and since inception of 5\/6\/16) &#8211; <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/dhoci-index-tracking\/\">DHOCI vs. Millennials ETF Battle<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>CRYPTO LIMERICKS<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>JCD Score ()<\/p>\n<p><strong>FED LIMERICKS<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>JCD Score ()<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">See this week\u2019s stock picks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhunplugged.com\/stock-page\/\"><strong>HERE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/THErealDVORAK\"><strong>Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewhorowitz\"><strong>Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[272,12,28],"tags":[271],"class_list":["post-55396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dh-unplugged-media","category-markets","category-media","tag-dh-unplugged","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55396"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55396\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}