{"id":51064,"date":"2017-12-21T10:25:35","date_gmt":"2017-12-21T15:25:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=51064"},"modified":"2017-12-31T11:58:26","modified_gmt":"2017-12-31T16:58:26","slug":"tdi-podcast-highlights-frank-curzio-537","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2017\/12\/21\/tdi-podcast-highlights-frank-curzio-537\/","title":{"rendered":"TDI Podcast Highlights: Frank Curzio (#537)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s highlights is from TDI Episode 537 with guest Frank Curzio. Make sure to check out his latest newsletter <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/go.frankcurzio.com\/aff_c?offer_id=11&amp;aff_id=1002\">HERE<\/a><\/strong>.<a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/the-disciplined-investor\/id217999782\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-257 alignright\" title=\"iTunes Subscribe\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/TDI_Itunes_Sidebar.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Market Update:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> S&amp;P 500: 1.60%<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Dow: 2.80%<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> NASDAQ 100: (1.10)%<\/div><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Listen To This Week&#8217;s Podcast:<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-audio\" data-id=\"su_audio_player_69d9528c5023f\" data-audio=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/podcasts\/tdi_episode537.mp3\" data-swf=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/plugins\/shortcodes-ultimate\/vendor\/jplayer\/jplayer.swf\" data-autoplay=\"no\" data-loop=\"no\" style=\"max-width:60%\"><div id=\"su_audio_player_69d9528c5023f\" class=\"jp-jplayer\"><\/div><div id=\"su_audio_player_69d9528c5023f_container\" class=\"jp-audio\"><div class=\"jp-type-single\"><div class=\"jp-gui jp-interface\"><div class=\"jp-controls\"><span class=\"jp-play\"><\/span><span class=\"jp-pause\"><\/span><span class=\"jp-stop\"><\/span><span class=\"jp-mute\"><\/span><span class=\"jp-unmute\"><\/span><span class=\"jp-volume-max\"><\/span><\/div><div class=\"jp-progress\"><div class=\"jp-seek-bar\"><div class=\"jp-play-bar\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"jp-volume-bar\"><div class=\"jp-volume-bar-value\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"jp-current-time\"><\/div><div class=\"jp-duration\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"jp-title\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/podcast-summary\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click HERE For More TDI Podcasts<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><div class=\"su-button-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/submit_podcast_review\/\" class=\"su-button su-button-style-soft\" style=\"color:#ffffff;background-color:#1257ea;border-color:#0f46bc;border-radius:9px\" target=\"_self\"><span style=\"color:#ffffff;padding:8px 24px;font-size:18px;line-height:27px;border-color:#5a8af1;border-radius:9px;text-shadow:1px 0px 0px #9c9696\"><i class=\"sui sui-arrow-right\" style=\"font-size:18px;color:#FFFFFF\"><\/i> Submit a Podcast Review<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>What&#8217;s Happening with the Markets? Andrew and Frank Curzio&#8217;s take:<\/strong><br \/>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Believes we are at a final push higher in domestic equities.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Tax plan proposal is continuing to keep a floor on stock prices with anticipation.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Due for a pull back.\u00a0 Everyone thinks it, but it just doesn&#8217;t seem to be happening.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Hedge funds are underperforming as they are taking on less risk then buying overvalued stocks.\u00a0 Their models are weighing the risk\/reward scenarios and thus not buying some of the riskier stocks due to valuations.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Stock valuations are getting out of control.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>In Economics:<\/strong><br \/>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Economics look really good across the board.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> However, Frank is seeing a lot of troubling numbers out of auto and truck sales.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>In Equities:<\/strong><br \/>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Frank is seeing a lot of disconnect in oil and gold stocks vs. their respective commodities.\u00a0 The commodity prices continue to increase, yet the companies mining, servicing and producing are staying stagnant.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Value stocks have lagged dramatically against their Growth counterparts.\u00a0 Frank and Andrew both are thinking there could be a major shift of this throughout 2018.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Frank really likes Diebold:\u00a0\u00a0Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) is an American financial self-service, security and services corporation internationally engaged primarily in the sale, manufacture, installation and service of self-service transaction systems (such as ATMs and currency processing systems), point-of-sale terminals, physical security products (including vaults and currency processing systems), and software and related services for global financial, retail, and commercial markets.\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Dropped from $40 to $16. Around $19 at the time of the interview.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Pays solid dividend<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Think that companies will need to replace \/ upgrade ATM machines where Diebold could benefit.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Andrew thinks there is a lot of alternatives to cash and ATMs as we move toward a digital age of Venmo, PayPal, Apple Pay, etc\u2026 which could continue to be a headwind for this company.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>On Underlying Fundamentals (Frank&#8217;s Take):<\/strong><br \/>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> More stocks down this year then up within the Russell.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Within the Top 50 performing stocks this year from the Russell there were only 2 that generated earnings and less then 10% that generated revenue. This year you had to take a lot of excess risk in order to produce returns.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>On Algo Trading:<\/strong><br \/>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Algorithms are working so well for companies that more and more of them are employing these types of strategies.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> When Frank was working for Cramer:\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Lists were sent out via email about what was to be discussed that night and before Frank could even read, the algos would be able to trade 500,000+ shares in a matter of milliseconds on the positions that were to be mentioned on Cramer&#8217;s show.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Fundamentals don\u2019t seem to matter in the age of Algos. All is trading off the news of the moment.\u00a0 Trading news items is being factored in so quickly that it\u2019s shoot first ask questions later.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>On Cryptocurrencies:<\/strong><br \/>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> There is a very large appetite for the cryptocurrency market.\u00a0 Is it a trend or a fad?<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Frank and Andrew are both equating cryptocurrencies to the dot com bubble of 2000.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> All you have to do now is put Crypto Currency, BlockChain or some other buzzword in a stocks name or description and you can easily get a big boost in your stock price similar to putting Dot Com after your company name in 2000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>On Global Investing \/ Economics:<\/strong><br \/>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Global PMI:\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Trend globally has done very well.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> From 53 to about 56 over the last couple of months.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Seeing Europe and other nations still pushing stimulus vs. the U.S. now backing off.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Many of the countries globally are growing a lot internally vs. relying on external investment and revenue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>On the Tax Plan:<\/strong><br \/>\n<div class=\"su-list\" style=\"margin-left:0px\">\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Lots of amendments were cobbled together and changes made at the very last minute.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> S&amp;P 500 companies have an average effective tax rate of about 21%.\n<ul>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Companies due quite a bit of financial manipulation to get their tax rate down to 21%.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Frank thinks that if we are to pass this bill, revenues and recognition of revenues will be utilized to a greater extent.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Frank also believes that the tax bill will bring in a lot of repatriation of assets.\u00a0 However, he believes that this will be utilized to buy back stocks rather then reinvesting back into the business.<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Earnings and revenue should get a boost from these changes to the tax plan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><i class=\"sui sui-caret-right\" style=\"color:#0a6b96\"><\/i> Net positive to the markets but believe that a lot of that upside is already baked into the market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Frank&#8217;s Final Thoughts:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Fundamentals will eventually begin to matter.\u00a0 While they didn\u2019t matter this year, watch for value investing to come back into vogue as valuations continue to get stretched.\u00a0 He thinks there are some great bargains right now.\u00a0 Likes JC Penney (JCP) as they own their own real estate, so there is a bit of a floor for the security. They have $1.5 billion in debt due over the next 3-5 years but they also have $3 billion of liquidity.\u00a0 Doesn\u2019t see them going bankrupt.\u00a0 Likes Kohl\u2019s (KSS) as well.<\/p>\n<p>Other Stocks to Watch:<\/p>\n<p>Oil Space (Likes Oil Services companies) \u2013 Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Schlumberger (SLB), Superior Energy Services (SPN) (Highly Volatile).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s highlights is from TDI Episode 537 with guest Frank Curzio. <\/p>\n<p>Make sure to check out his latest newsletter offer!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":50980,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[511],"class_list":["post-51064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogandupdates","tag-podcast-highlights","et-has-post-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51064"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51064\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}