{"id":4856,"date":"2009-09-22T10:38:46","date_gmt":"2009-09-22T14:38:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=4856"},"modified":"2016-09-20T17:27:43","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T21:27:43","slug":"leading-indicators-less-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2009\/09\/22\/leading-indicators-less-good\/","title":{"rendered":"Leading Indicators &#8211; Less Good&#8230;."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It all depends on how you look at it&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>On a year over year basis, the Leading Indicators from both the Conference Board and OECD are turning up from <!--more-->a deep base.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/leading2-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4854\" title=\"leading2\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/leading2-1.jpg\" alt=\"leading2\" width=\"425\" height=\"248\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/leading-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4855\" title=\"leading\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/leading-1.jpg\" alt=\"leading\" width=\"425\" height=\"248\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">On a monthly basis though, things look a bit different.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">From the component makeup, employment is the largest drag it appears.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/leadingmom-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4853 aligncenter\" title=\"leadingmom\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/09\/leadingmom-1.jpg\" alt=\"leadingmom\" width=\"425\" height=\"248\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">From <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dismal.com\"><strong>Dismal.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<ul class=\"numbers\">\n<li>The Conference Board index of leading indicators rose for a fifth consecutive month, increasing 0.6% in August. July&#8217;s increase was revised to 0.9% from 0.6%.<\/li>\n<li>Seven of the survey&#8217;s 10 components were either neutral or positive, the same as in the prior four months.<\/li>\n<li>A positive interest rate yield spread, higher stock prices, and longer supplier delivery times in manufacturing were the biggest contributors in August, adding more than a full percentage point to growth.<\/li>\n<li>A decline in nondefense capital goods orders and the real money supply subtracted 0.4 of a percentage point from growth.<\/li>\n<li>The leading index in August was 1.9% higher on a year-ago basis, the highest since April 2006. The cycle trough was -3.9% in March, highlighting just how dramatic the turnaround has been.<\/li>\n<li>The three-month annualized rate dipped to 9.5% from 10.9%, while the six-month annualized rate improved to 9% from 6.2%. The last time the six-month rate was increasing this quickly was in March 2004.<\/li>\n<li>With August&#8217;s increase, the leading index has reversed 66% of its 6.2% peak-to-trough fall spanning January 2006 to March 2009.<\/li>\n<li>The coincident indicator, which consists of nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales, was unchanged in August following a 0.1% rise in July. Before July, the coincident index had fallen for eight consecutive months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It all depends on how you look at it&#8230;. On a year over year basis, the Leading Indicators from both the Conference Board and OECD are turning up from<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,12,28],"tags":[481],"class_list":["post-4856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-markets","category-media","tag-economy","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4856\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}