{"id":36012,"date":"2016-01-27T04:57:00","date_gmt":"2016-01-27T09:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=36012"},"modified":"2016-09-20T16:15:11","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T20:15:11","slug":"dhunplugged-300-the-dhfedgiving-away-money","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2016\/01\/27\/dhunplugged-300-the-dhfedgiving-away-money\/","title":{"rendered":"DHUnplugged #300: The DHFed…Giving Away Money!"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"DHFed_300\"<\/a>Market comeback? Short-squeeze ahead of the Fed? Oil hitting bottom? Not so fast…<\/p>\n

Apple’s (AAPL) earnings, facts about Oil and the million dollar Oprah Tweet – Just a few of \u00a0 the important discussion points from this episode – and much more.<\/p>\n

The big question is: Will this end up being the worst January for market in history or will the Yellen and her band of merry men be able to save the markets?<\/p>\n

Oh – not to forget that we are having a special giveaway this episode – check the show notes below for more information.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/span>Click HERE for Show Notes and Links<\/div>\n
\n

Announcing the DHFed – We give away money too! Special giveaway for the 300th show will be announced at the end of the show. <\/strong>(Scroll to bottom)
\n<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The first week up this year. With a good amount of chatter from Central Banks last week, the thought is that they are going to once again save markets. However, there is a palpable change in sentiment over whether they can do it this time. \u00a0 (Draghi spoke last week and promised to do “everything possible” again and there is the hope floating that the Bank Of Japan will add stimulus.)<\/p>\n

Several “big firms” are cutting their year end price target for the S&P 500. The latest was JP Morgan with a move from 2,200 to 2,000 by the end of 2016.<\/p>\n

– Quick calc: EPS of $120 X PE 17 = 2,040 or 7% possible move from here…
\n– The above also assumes EPS grows by 10%+ for full year 2016<\/p>\n

China continues to be the target of selling as the PBOC not trusted and massive flight of money out of the country. Some capital controls have been added to try to keep money from leaving.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, China is targeting further cuts in crude steel production capacity by as much as 150 million tons and \u201clarge scale” reductions in coal output as part of supply-side measures aimed at curbing overcapacity and excess labor in state-owned industries. The country has lowered steel production by about 90 million tons “in recent years” and will push to cut a further 100 million to 150 million tons, while “strictly controlling” steel capacity increases and halting new coal mine approvals. (LINK<\/a><\/strong>)<\/p>\n

Don’t believe China’s economic data? The Communist Party\u2018s anticorruption commission announced late Tuesday that it was looking into the head of the country\u2018s statistics agency over what it called \u201cserious violations.\u201d\u009d<\/p>\n

Markets following price of Crude. In 2016, 95% correlation of S&P 500 to the daily move in crude price. Usually only 50% over longer term period.<\/p>\n

Post Close, \u00a0 WTI oil futures sell off after the API reports a massive<\/strong> build of +11.4 mln barrels of oil vs. last week’s build of 4.6 mln barrel (Briefing.com)<\/p>\n

Big week for earnings – 150+ companies in the S&P 500 are reporting this week. So far a mixed bag. Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Twitter (TWTR) – big management changes, very abrupt departures of heads of key areas of the company. And, Twitter Chief Executive Jack Dorsey announced Tuesday that American Express\u2018s Leslie Berland will join the social media company as its chief marketing officer (AXP? Really???).<\/p>\n

News out of Re\/code that Twitter has stopped showing ads to their more valuable users.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Twitter Stopping Ads…<\/strong> <\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Apple (AAPL) out with earnings: (now holding $216 billion in cash)<\/p>\n

– Q1 iPhones 74.8 mln vs 76.2 mln ests vs 74.5 mln last year.
\n– Q1 iPads 16.1 mln vs 19.1 mln ests vs 21.4 mln last year
\n– Q1 Macs 5.3 mln vs 5.7 mln ests 5.5 mln last year
\n– Q1 $3.28 vs $3.23 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $75.9 bln vs $76.60 bln
\n– Q2 gross margins of 39.0-39.5% vs 40.0% ests and 40.8% last year
\n– Q1 gross margin of 40.1% vs 39.9% ests and 39.9% last year (guidance 39-40%)
\n– Company issues downside guidance <\/strong>for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $50-53 bln vs. $55.38 bln Capital IQ
\n– Consensus; gross margins of 39.0-39.5% vs 40.0% ests and 40.8% last year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now here is a story: 35 restaurants across China have been found illegally using opium as seasoning in their food, state officials say. Good amount of Hot Pot restaurants are on the list. (LINK<\/a><\/strong>)<\/p>\n

A new twist on competitive earnings calls: T-Mobile unveiled its \u201cVerizon Earnings Call Drinking Game,\u201d\u009d which encouraged anyone who tuned in for the company\u2018s quarterly investors webcast to take a drink of \u201cyour beverage of choice\u201d\u009d anytime Verizon executives mentioned words like \u201cmillennials\u201d\u009d or \u201cthe young people.\u201d\u009d<\/p>\n

You gotta love this – just as predicted: Oprah Tweets about her 25 lb. weight loss while still eating bread on the Weight Watcher’s diet – stock pops 17%<\/p>\n

Michael Bloomberg may be throwing his hat into the Presidential race. IF Sanders and Trump get the party nominations.<\/p>\n

More information on the extension of car loan terms: Credit-tracking firm Experian says loans with terms lasting 73 to 84 months accounted for nearly 28% of all new vehicles financed in the third quarter of last year, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago. More expensive cars on longer-term loans.<\/p>\n

Subprime car loan originations jumped to nearly $40 billion in the second quarter, dipping only slightly in the third quarter, according to the New York Fed.<\/p>\n

Car Loan Chart<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

SAT exam cheating in China? The future of standardized tests is again under the microscope after Ivy League scholars called for the tests to be made an optional part of university admissions, while renewed fears of widespread cheating in Asia has cast a pall over the exam\u2018s integrity.<\/p>\n

How about that snow? It snarled Northeast over weekend, what will that do to retailers?<\/p>\n

On a sad note… Abe Vigoda Died. Famous for his role as Det. Fish in Barney Miller and “Sal” in the Godfather.<\/p>\n

\n

For the 300th DHUnplugged Show – We have a Giveaway! Guess how much money is in the picture below and the winner gets $100 Amazon Gift Card. (Entries open through 12am (ET), Sunday January 31, 2016)<\/p>\n

Guess the Amount of Money In This Image <\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Take a look at the \u00a0 image in the above link and then guess the amount. The winner will be announced next show. (First entry with exact amount will be the winner – one entry per person, earliest entry is the only one that counts – no funny stuff. An email will be sent to you to confirm your entry.)<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0– Login\/Register to access and view the entry form – <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Registered Users Only – Please Register\/Login to view<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

See this week\u2018s stock picks HERE<\/strong><\/a><\/figure>\n

<\/figure>\n

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Market comeback? Short-squeeze ahead of the Fed? Oil hitting bottom? Not so fast…<\/p>\n

Apple’s (AAPL) earnings, facts about Oil and the million dollar Oprah Tweet – Just a few of\u00c2\u00a0 the important discussion points from this episode – and much more.<\/p>\n

The big question is: Will this end up being the worst January for market in history or will the Yellen and her band of merry men be able to save the markets?<\/p>\n

Oh – not to forget that we are having a special giveaway this episode – check the show notes below for more information.<\/p>\n

\n

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links<\/p>\n

Announcing the DHFed – We give away money too! Special giveaway for the 300th show will be announced at the end of the show. <\/strong>(Scroll to bottom)
\n<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

The first week up this year. With a good amount of chatter from Central Banks last week, the thought is that they are going to once again save markets. However, there is a palpable change in sentiment over whether they can do it this time.\u00c2\u00a0 (Draghi spoke last week and promised to do “everything possible” again and there is the hope floating that the Bank Of Japan will add stimulus.)<\/p>\n

Several “big firms” are cutting their year end price target for the S&P 500. The latest was JP Morgan with a move from 2,200 to 2,000 by the end of 2016.<\/p>\n

– Quick calc: EPS of $120 X PE 17 = 2,040 or 7% possible move from here…
\n– The above also assumes EPS grows by 10%+ for full year 2016<\/p>\n

China continues to be the target of selling as the PBOC not trusted and massive flight of money out of the country. Some capital controls have been added to try to keep money from leaving.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, China is targeting further cuts in crude steel production capacity by as much as 150 million tons and \u201clarge scale” reductions in coal output as part of supply-side measures aimed at curbing overcapacity and excess labor in state-owned industries. The country has lowered steel production by about 90 million tons “in recent years” and will push to cut a further 100 million to 150 million tons, while “strictly controlling” steel capacity increases and halting new coal mine approvals. (LINK<\/a><\/strong>)<\/p>\n

Don’t believe China’s economic data? The Communist Party\u201d\u2122s anticorruption commission announced late Tuesday that it was looking into the head of the country\u201d\u2122s statistics agency over what it called \u201cserious violations.\u201d\u009d<\/p>\n

Markets following price of Crude. In 2016, 95% correlation of S&P 500 to the daily move in crude price. Usually only 50% over longer term period.<\/p>\n

Post Close,\u00c2\u00a0 WTI oil futures sell off after the API reports a massive<\/strong> build of +11.4 mln barrels of oil vs. last week’s build of 4.6 mln barrel (Briefing.com)<\/p>\n

Big week for earnings – 150+ companies in the S&P 500 are reporting this week. So far a mixed bag. Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Twitter (TWTR) – big management changes, very abrupt departures of heads of key areas of the company. And, Twitter Chief Executive Jack Dorsey announced Tuesday that American Express\u201d\u2122s Leslie Berland will join the social media company as its chief marketing officer (AXP? Really???).<\/p>\n

News out of Re\/code that Twitter has stopped showing ads to their more valuable users.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Twitter Stopping Ads…<\/strong> <\/a>\n<\/p>\n

Apple (AAPL) out with earnings: (now holding $216 billion in cash)<\/p>\n

– Q1 iPhones 74.8 mln vs 76.2 mln ests vs 74.5 mln last year.
\n– Q1 iPads 16.1 mln vs 19.1 mln ests vs 21.4 mln last year
\n– Q1 Macs 5.3 mln vs 5.7 mln ests 5.5 mln last year
\n– Q1 $3.28 vs $3.23 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $75.9 bln vs $76.60 bln
\n– Q2 gross margins of 39.0-39.5% vs 40.0% ests and 40.8% last year
\n– Q1 gross margin of 40.1% vs 39.9% ests and 39.9% last year (guidance 39-40%)
\n– Company issues downside guidance <\/strong>for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $50-53 bln vs. $55.38 bln Capital IQ
\n– Consensus; gross margins of 39.0-39.5% vs 40.0% ests and 40.8% last year.<\/p>\n

Now here is a story: 35 restaurants across China have been found illegally using opium as seasoning in their food, state officials say. Good amount of Hot Pot restaurants are on the list. (LINK<\/a><\/strong>)<\/p>\n

A new twist on competitive earnings calls: T-Mobile unveiled its \u201cVerizon Earnings Call Drinking Game,\u201d\u009d which encouraged anyone who tuned in for the company\u201d\u2122s quarterly investors webcast to take a drink of \u201cyour beverage of choice\u201d\u009d anytime Verizon executives mentioned words like \u201cmillennials\u201d\u009d or \u201cthe young people.\u201d\u009d<\/p>\n

You gotta love this – just as predicted: Oprah Tweets about her 25 lb. weight loss while still eating bread on the Weight Watcher’s diet – stock pops 17%<\/p>\n

Michael Bloomberg may be throwing his hat into the Presidential race. IF Sanders and Trump get the party nominations.<\/p>\n

More information on the extension of car loan terms: Credit-tracking firm Experian says loans with terms lasting 73 to 84 months accounted for nearly 28% of all new vehicles financed in the third quarter of last year, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago. More expensive cars on longer-term loans.<\/p>\n

Subprime car loan originations jumped to nearly $40 billion in the second quarter, dipping only slightly in the third quarter, according to the New York Fed.<\/p>\n

Car Loan Chart<\/strong><\/a>\n<\/p>\n

SAT exam cheating in China? The future of standardized tests is again under the microscope after Ivy League scholars called for the tests to be made an optional part of university admissions, while renewed fears of widespread cheating in Asia has cast a pall over the exam\u201d\u2122s integrity.<\/p>\n

How about that snow? It snarled Northeast over weekend, what will that do to retailers?<\/p>\n

On a sad note… Abe Vigoda Died. Famous for his role as Det. Fish in Barney Miller and “Sal” in the Godfather.<\/p>\n

\n

For the 300th DHUnplugged Show – We have a Giveaway! Guess how much money is in the picture below and the winner gets $100 Amazon Gift Card. (Entries open through 12am (ET), Sunday January 31, 2016)<\/p>\n

Guess the Amount of Money In This Image <\/strong><\/a>\n<\/p>\n

Take a look at the\u00c2\u00a0 image in the above link and then guess the amount. The winner will be announced next show. (First entry with exact amount will be the winner – one entry per person, earliest entry is the only one that counts – no funny stuff. An email will be sent to you to confirm your entry.)<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00c2\u00a0– Login\/Register to access and view the entry form – <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Registered Users Only – Please Register\/Login to view<\/p>\n

\n

See this week\u201d\u2122s stock picks HERE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[272,12,28],"tags":[271],"class_list":["post-36012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dh-unplugged-media","category-markets","category-media","tag-dh-unplugged","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36012\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}