{"id":25272,"date":"2013-11-06T10:21:10","date_gmt":"2013-11-06T15:21:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=25272"},"modified":"2016-09-20T14:27:13","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T18:27:13","slug":"economic-surprise-index-may-be-leading-indicator-chart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2013\/11\/06\/economic-surprise-index-may-be-leading-indicator-chart\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Surprise Index May Be Leading Indicator (Chart)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This is something that we have seen before. Markets forget about the underlying economic conditions (for a while) and trade to their own beat. Reality will usually hit soon after there is a large enough divergence between the slope of the market and the surprise index.<\/p>\n<p>The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and <!--more-->quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises (actual releases vs Bloomberg survey median). A positive reading of the Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance been beating consensus. <a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/ecosurp-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-25273 aligncenter\" alt=\"ecosurp\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/ecosurp-1.jpg\" width=\"544\" height=\"328\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three-month window.The weights of economic indicators are derived from relative high-frequency spot FX impacts of 1 standard deviation data surprises. The indices also employ a time decay function to replicate the limited memory of markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is something that we have seen before. Markets forget about the underlying economic conditions (for a while) and trade to their own beat. Reality will usually hit soon after there is a large enough divergence between the slope of the market and the surprise index. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[481],"class_list":["post-25272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25272"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25272\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}