{"id":20195,"date":"2012-08-14T10:09:49","date_gmt":"2012-08-14T14:09:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=20195"},"modified":"2016-09-20T12:22:08","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T16:22:08","slug":"economic-data-could-rule-out-qe3-4-and-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2012\/08\/14\/economic-data-could-rule-out-qe3-4-and-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Data Could Rule Out QE3, 4 and 5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Producer Prices and Retail Sales came in much <strong>hotter<\/strong> than expectations this morning which may rule out the probability of further stimulus:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Producer Prices:<\/strong><!--more--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"su-highlight\" style=\"background:#ff9b99;color:#000000\">&nbsp;Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM: 0.3% vs. expectations of 0.2%&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"su-highlight\" style=\"background:#ff9b99;color:#000000\">&nbsp;PPI Ex Food &amp; Energy MoM: \u00a0 0.4% vs. expectations of 0.2%&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n<li>Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY: \u00a0 0.5% which was in-line with expectations<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"su-highlight\" style=\"background:#ff9b99;color:#000000\">&nbsp;PPI Ex Food &amp; Energy: 2.5% vs. expectations of 2.3%&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/PPI-YoY-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20197 aligncenter\" title=\"PPI YoY\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/PPI-YoY-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"555\" height=\"342\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, producer prices have remained fairly subdued. \u00a0 However, any increase in these levels, or any slope higher, will weigh on the Fed&#8217;s Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP). \u00a0 As this is the first increase that has been observed in some time, it should not signal a major cause for concern, but will need to be watched carefully in the future along with Consumer Prices to show that inflation stays in check.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"twitter-follow-button\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewhorowitz\" data-show-count=\"false\">Follow @andrewhorowitz<\/a><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/PPI-MoM-20120814-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20196 aligncenter\" title=\"PPI MoM 20120814\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/PPI-MoM-20120814-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"340\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Retail Sales:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"su-highlight\" style=\"background:#9dff99;color:#000000\">&nbsp;Advance Retail Sales: 0.8% vs. expectations of 0.3%&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span class=\"su-highlight\" style=\"background:#9dff99;color:#000000\">&nbsp;Retail Sales less Autos: \u00a0 0.8% vs. expectations of 0.4%&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/Retail-Sales-201208142-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20211 aligncenter\" title=\"Retail Sales 20120814\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/Retail-Sales-201208142-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"565\" height=\"342\" \/><\/a>Retail Sales were <em>very strong<\/em> (compared to expectations and the previous reading) during the month of July with Sporting Goods leading the way, up 1.6% on a month-over-month (MoM) basis. \u00a0 The strength from this reading may partially be inflated by June&#8217;s heavily deflated numbers. \u00a0 As stated with PPI, this is one of the first significant positive turns in Retail Sales and doesn&#8217;t necessarily rule out further stimulus, but if the trend continues, the Fed may keep its powder dry.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/Retail-Components-20120814-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20199 aligncenter\" title=\"Retail Components 20120814\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/08\/Retail-Components-20120814-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"569\" height=\"350\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Producer Prices and Retail Sales came in much hotter than expectations this morning which may rule out the probability of further stimulus: Producer Prices:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":371,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,12],"tags":[100,481],"class_list":["post-20195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-markets","tag-economics","tag-economy","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/371"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20195\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}