{"id":17467,"date":"2012-01-27T12:54:55","date_gmt":"2012-01-27T17:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=17467"},"modified":"2016-09-20T19:12:10","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T23:12:10","slug":"gdp-charts-what-happened-to-the-happy-consumer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/27\/gdp-charts-what-happened-to-the-happy-consumer\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP Charts &#8211; What Happened to the Happy Consumer?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-17483 alignleft\" title=\"quagire\" src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/_d_improd_\/quagire_f_improf_135x187.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"135\" height=\"187\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s get right to the point. GDP is growing, but at far less that is needed to get the U.S. economy out of its <strong>quagmire<\/strong>. We all know that a GDP over 5% should be the number after the deep recession. But, we have to deal with the cold hard fact that the tremendous debt load is going to hold back the country for decades (think Japan).<\/p>\n<p>Now, you may be thinking (as my friend Howard says): &#8220;What is the difference, the GDP report is backward looking?&#8221; Sure, the optimist will see the glass any way they choose, as long as it can be rationalized in their favor. The GDP report may be from data that has already passed, but markets were trading on it as though the number was well <strong>North<\/strong> of 3%. So, consider that as you look at the charts below.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"twitter-follow-button\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewhorowitz\" data-show-count=\"false\">Follow @andrewhorowitz<\/a><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">First there is the GDP on a monthly and annual basis. Again, it fell short of expectations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17488\" title=\"gdptimes\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/gdptimes-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"549\" height=\"330\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Then consumption has fallen quite abruptly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17485\" title=\"gdpcons1\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/gdpcons1-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"345\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">At the same time, inventories have been growing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17486\" title=\"inventories\" src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/_d_improd_\/inventories_f_improf_552x333.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"552\" height=\"333\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The numbers do not create a silver lining, especially since revisions will often be to the downside.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">From Bloomberg:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">By Alex Kowalski<br \/>\nJan. 27 (Bloomberg) &#8212; The U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the fourth quarter as consumers curbed spending and government agencies cut back, validating the Federal Reserve\u2018s decision to keep interest rates low for a longer period.<br \/>\nGross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, climbed at a 2.8 percent annual pace following a 1.8<br \/>\npercent gain in the prior quarter, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 3 percent increase.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Growth excluding a jump in inventories was 0.8 percent. Fed officials this week said they were concerned about the economy\u2018s lack of vigor two years after the recession ended, prompting a pledge to keep interest rates low at least until late 2014. The increase in GDP was still the fastest since the second quarter of 2010, showing that the world\u2018s largest economy has so far withstood the effects of the debt crisis in Europe.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s get right to the point. GDP is growing, but at far less that is needed to get the U.S. economy out of its quagmire. We all know that a GDP over 5% should be the number after the deep recession. But, we have to deal with the cold hard fact that the tremendous debt [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[481],"class_list":["post-17467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17467\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}