{"id":1185,"date":"2008-12-08T14:05:22","date_gmt":"2008-12-08T19:05:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=1185"},"modified":"2008-12-08T14:05:22","modified_gmt":"2008-12-08T19:05:22","slug":"3-reasons-to-stay-in-this-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2008\/12\/08\/3-reasons-to-stay-in-this-market\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Reasons to Stay in this Market ???"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It is as good as any headline looking to catch the attention of anyone who is grasping for reasons to stick to a plan that caused major financial (and psychological) pain over the past 12-months. The concept of Buy-and-Hold, the brainchild of Warren Buffett, has been bastardized by the asset gatherers who believe that it really means: buy-and-hold-no-matter-how-much-money-you-lose. (Also see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2008\/12\/03\/strategy-lab-dont-buy-and-hold-a-bad-strategy\/\">Don&#8217;t buy and hold a bad Strategy<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>When is it the right time to sell anyway? 10% down? 20%, 30%, 40%, or 50% ? While Warren Buffett has amassed a fortune by sticking to what he knows and believes in, he has also lost an amazing amount of money over the past 12-months. Of course I will not start to second guess his success, but should he be blindly followed by Joe Investor?<\/p>\n<p><!--more-->This week, <a href=\"http:\/\/articles.moneycentral.msn.com\/Investing\/StrategyLab\/Rnd18\/StratLabSummary.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">MSN Strategy Lab<\/a> brings the debate front and center as I reflect on the past few month&#8217;s market devastation and the process that was used to keep our Strategy Lab portfolio out of danger. Now up over 13%, I \u00a0 ask the question as to how anyone can just sit idle and watch profits <em>and<\/em> principal disappear.<\/p>\n<p>On the heels of that commentary, Guru investor <a href=\"http:\/\/www.valideacapital.com\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>John Reese<\/strong><\/a> came to the defense of his unique computer driven methodology which combines the best ideas of famous investors. In his words:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>They are those who have the best track records of outperforming the market over the long term &#8212; people like Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, David Dreman, John Neff, Ben Graham and Martin Zweig. And what a lot of investors either don\u2018t realize (or simply ignore) is that several such Wall Street greats have either written or been the subject of books that detail their stock-picking methodologies.<\/p>\n<p>Many relied on quantitative, stick-to-the-numbers approaches, and I have used these proven and published techniques to develop my &#8220;Guru Strategies.&#8221; Each of these computer models mimics the method of a different investing great. During Strategy Lab, I\u2018ll use these models exclusively to decide when to buy and sell stocks.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I like John and think he is an excellent money manager and a really smart guy. This is in no way directed at him, but his article got me thinking. It is odd that the defense of a buy-and-hold strategy always targets the fears of an investor missing the biggest days in the market and has at its root the idea that it is all-or-nothing? In other words, it appears that the assumption is that if you do not buy-and-hold, you are going to be a market timer who is looking to tactically move in and out on technical signals.<\/p>\n<p>I have questions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Why is it that research related to being invested during the worst days are rarely presented?<\/li>\n<li>Why is it that we have been coaxed into believing that investors and advisors are too stupid to see a train wreck or rally approaching and use sensible risk management and hedging to both gain and protect a life&#8217;s savings?<\/li>\n<li>Why can&#8217;t it be as simple as admitting that chasing the S&amp;P 500 is a fool&#8217;s game?<\/li>\n<li>If you want to be the S&amp;P 500, then index through ETFs and call it a day. Who needs anything more if it is that simple and a downswing of 20% or even 60% does not matter?<\/li>\n<li>It always comes back&#8230;right?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It is time to question the established rules as they have caused irreparable harm to the portfolios of many investors beyond any risk tolerance assumptions that were ever considered. Frankly, a portfolio that is down 10% or even 25% in a year&#8217;s time is difficult enough to deal with; but 50% in a matter of months is something that needs to be questioned.<\/p>\n<p>Do you still believe that holding on to a portfolio in all market conditions is the right way to play this game?<\/p>\n<p>It is time to stand up to those that profit off of the strategy and found it acceptable to removed the word &#8220;risk management&#8221; and replaced it with &#8220;just trust that everything will work out&#8221; in an effort to rationalizing the massive amount of money lost to absolute stubbornness.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll take stop-losses and hedging any day of the week&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>Thoughts?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">&#8212;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">While you are here&#8230; check out these videos:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ino.com\/info\/41\/CD3465\/&amp;dp=0&amp;l=0&amp;campaignid=9\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/ino.directtrack.com\/42\/3465\/41\/\" border=\"0\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is as good as any headline looking to catch the attention of anyone who is grasping for reasons to stick to a plan that caused major financial (and psychological) pain over the past 12-months. The concept of Buy-and-Hold, the brainchild of Warren Buffett, has been bastardized by the asset gatherers who believe that it [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[220,253,251],"tags":[13,244],"class_list":["post-1185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weekly-gameplan","category-strategy","category-msn-strategy-lab","tag-rants","tag-strategy-lab","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1185\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}