{"id":11433,"date":"2010-11-12T14:56:29","date_gmt":"2010-11-12T19:56:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=11433"},"modified":"2016-09-20T18:19:07","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T22:19:07","slug":"why-we-are-short-europeeuro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2010\/11\/12\/why-we-are-short-europeeuro\/","title":{"rendered":"Why We Are SHORT Europe\/EURO"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here are just a few of the headlines from today:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Greek unemployment rose to 12.2 percent in August from 12 percent in July, the highest since monthly data was first reported in 2004.<\/li>\n<li>The U.K. consumer confidence index fell 1 point in October to 52, the lowest since March 2009.<br \/>\nThe euro-area economy grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter from the second, when it expanded 1 percent.<\/li>\n<li>Industrial output fell 0.9 percent in September from August.<br \/>\nGerman economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 0.7 percent from the previous period, when it surged a record 2.3 percent. From a year earlier, output rose 3.9 percent.<\/li>\n<li>The French economy grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter, slowing from a 0.7 percent pace in the previous three months.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Along with these, we have laid out a framework of how there will be limited ability for the Eurozone to move ahead with the current austerity measures. \u00a0 Below is a small excerpt from our recent commentary to our <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/mailbox\/tdi-investment-fund\/\"><strong>clients<\/strong><\/a>. It provides some of the backround and results of the Euro crisis. (Note &#8211; this is only a few pieces from a much longer commentary):<\/p>\n<p>In the beginning of 2010, when the Euro reached its low<!--more--> point against major currencies, importers looks at the lower pricing on good from the EuroZone (due to the currency weakness) as an opportunity to buy goods at a markdown. \u00a0 This resulted in the Euro Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) seeing a nice increase. Even more astonishing was the boost that Germany experienced in the most recent quarter\u2018s exports, just as austerity measures were beginning to kick-in throughout the Euro region.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/zew.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11439\" title=\"zew\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/zew-610x341-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"610\" height=\"341\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Over the past two months, the Euro has appreciated markedly. At the same time, economic reports are showing that a slowdown is rather evident as we enter the fourth and final quarter of 2010. The latest data points indicate that GDP for the region may only reach 0.2 percent on a quarterly basis for the fourth quarter. \u00a0 Combine that with a low level of industrial orders and we are set for some very strong headwinds for the region.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/production-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-11440\" title=\"production\" src=\"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/production-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"337\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Consider that Ireland is now on the brink of failure and Portugal may not be that much further behind. Already there are murmurs circulating that a bailout of the Irish debt is forthcoming and a restructuring will not be necessary. We shall see&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here are just a few of the headlines from today: Greek unemployment rose to 12.2 percent in August from 12 percent in July, the highest since monthly data was first reported in 2004. The U.K. consumer confidence index fell 1 point in October to 52, the lowest since March 2009. The euro-area economy grew 0.4 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[5,12],"tags":[481,483],"class_list":["post-11433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-markets","tag-economy","tag-markets","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11433\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}