{"id":1125,"date":"2008-11-19T01:45:46","date_gmt":"2008-11-19T06:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/?p=1125"},"modified":"2016-09-20T03:48:27","modified_gmt":"2016-09-20T07:48:27","slug":"chart-sp-500-retest-1997","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/2008\/11\/19\/chart-sp-500-retest-1997\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart: S&P 500 – Back to 1997?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Today we hit an interesting level for the S&P 500. Intraday, we moved down to decade old support levels and then as if on queue, buyers (aka the Plunge Protection Team) came in to move the markets back up, turning a significant loss into a reasonable gain.<\/p>\n

While that appeared to be good news, there was much more that needs to be looked into as there are neon signs flashing warning<\/em>. By all measures, \u00a0 the next support level for the S&P 500 is very important.<\/p>\n

Click on the chart below and enlarge to see a monthly history of the S&P going back to 1997. We have now taken back most of the massive gains that were booked during the 1998-2000 bull market…for the second time ! Surely investors are going to be very nervous and arguably looking for any excuse to bail.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The next level of support appears to be 799 for the S&P 500 which is the double bottom of 1997 and 2003. This is reason enough on its own to keep a neutral\/short portfolio allocation. Add to that a confused Congress, a bailout happy Treasury Secretary and a lame duck President and it makes for a lethal recipe. Don\u2018t even bring up fundamentals as this will tip us right over the cliff.<\/p>\n

The high level of the VIX (60+) also provides additional data to believe that another retest (or more) is possible as the range of returns could easily move the index through lower support.<\/p>\n

How long will buyers keep on believing that a bounce from the lows is automatic?<\/p>\n

Thoughts and comments please…..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today we hit an interesting level for the S&P 500. Intraday, we moved down to decade old support levels and then as if on queue, buyers (aka the Plunge Protection Team) came in to move the markets back up, turning a significant loss into a reasonable gain. While that appeared to be good news, there […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,253,18],"tags":[483,165],"class_list":["post-1125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets","category-strategy","category-technology","tag-markets","tag-technical-analysis","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1125\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedisciplinedinvestor.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}